Stop Playing Whack-a-Mole with Vulnerabilities

Are You Really Managing Risk?

Vulnerability management: Is there a more soul-crushing phrase in the security world? We’re bombarded with alerts, overwhelmed by CVEs, and constantly trying to patch holes faster than they appear. But are we truly managing risk, or are we just playing whack-a-mole with vulnerabilities, hoping we don’t get hit?

The truth is, simply reacting to CVSS scores isn’t enough. A “critical” vulnerability on a system nobody uses is far less concerning than a “medium” vulnerability on your core web server. We need a smarter approach, one that considers both the likelihood of exploitation and the impact on our specific organization. That’s where the power of combining EPSS and SSVC comes in. These two tools, the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) and Stakeholder-Specific Vulnerability Categorization (SSVC), offer a more nuanced and effective approach to vulnerability prioritization. They help us move beyond reactive patching and towards proactive risk management.

EPSS: Predicting the Imminent Threat

Imagine having a crystal ball that could tell you which vulnerabilities are most likely to be exploited right now. That’s essentially what EPSS provides. It uses statistical modeling to predict the probability of a vulnerability being exploited in the wild. Think of it as the weather forecast for vulnerabilities – it gives you an idea of how likely it is to “rain exploits.”

• The Good: EPSS provides a quantifiable measure of exploitability, helping you focus on the most pressing threats.
• The Catch: EPSS only tells you about the likelihood of exploitation, not the impact. A high EPSS score doesn’t necessarily mean a high risk to your organization.

SSVC: Putting Vulnerabilities in Your Context

SSVC takes a different approach. It asks: “How much do I care if this vulnerability is exploited?” It forces you to consider the specific impact on your business, mission, and critical assets, helping you prioritize which problems to address first. Imagine SSVC as your car’s diagnostic system, alerting you to take immediate action for a failing brake system, versus continue to drive with caution for low tire pressure and fix it later.

• The Good: SSVC considers your organization’s unique context, making prioritization more relevant.
• The Catch: SSVC is more subjective and requires careful consideration of your specific environment.

The Power of Two: A Combined Approach

So, which is better: EPSS or SSVC? The answer is both. They’re two sides of the same coin. EPSS tells you how likely an exploit is, while SSVC tells you how much it matters.

Here’s a quick comparison:

Feature	EPSS	SSVC
Focus	Likelihood of exploitation	Overall risk to the organization
Method	Statistical modeling	Decision-making process
Output	Score (0-1)	Category (e.g., Track, Track*, Attend, and Act)
Context	Not considered	Crucial
Subjectivity	Low	High

Approach it this way:

1. SSVC First: Start with SSVC to get a sense of the overall risk to your organization. Categorize vulnerabilities based on their potential impact.

2. EPSS Refinement: Use EPSS to refine your SSVC categories. A “High” SSVC vulnerability with a high EPSS score becomes your top priority. A “High” SSVC vulnerability with a low EPSS score might be something you address later.

Stop Reacting, Start Strategizing

Using EPSS and SSVC together allows you to move beyond simply reacting to vulnerabilities and start strategically managing risk. You’ll be able to:

• Reduce Alert Fatigue: Focus on the vulnerabilities that truly matter.
• Improve Resource Allocation: Prioritize remediation efforts based on actual risk.
• Communicate Effectively: Explain vulnerability risk to business stakeholders in terms they understand.

So, are you ready to stop playing whack-a-mole and start truly managing risk? Embrace the power of EPSS and SSVC to take control of your vulnerability management program with CVE-Risk-Compass, an open-source tool I built to operationalize EPSS and SSVC.